Rising Inventory... Maybe it's not just Seasonality?

Seasonality says that this time of the year should have a decrease in both home prices and sold numbers. Given that this is the case, why are so many agent whispering about something more? If you speak to Real Estate Agents there seems to be a consensus that a shift is coming, but isn’t this just typical seasonality changes?

August, 2018 Real Estate statistics of Fairfax County, VA

August, 2018 Real Estate statistics of Fairfax County, VA

The information above shows the current count per status in the top right, status count from the prior month, status count from the prior year, as well as percent changes with each. A simple way to interpret the data is by realizing that the left side can be related to changes in seasonality while the right can be related to changes in the market. (Obviously there are a number of other statistics which help give a complete picture, but these are the main identifiers.)

When it comes to the left side you’ll quickly notice that there have been a drop in each category, from listings to closings. That makes sense due to seasonality, but the number of pending contracts has dropped at a much more significant rate. So significant in fact that the change from the prior year’s pendings was nearly 3 times lower than the rate of new listings. This shows that less listings are going under contract when compared to last month and seasonality is absolutely affecting the market right now.

When it comes to the right side you’ll notice that there are actually more new listings than last year, less pendings, and roughly even closings. Why does this matter? This means that inventory is rising! New listings are coming at a much faster rate than they are being sold which has a tendency to compound on itself and cause a market shift. Another way of looking at closings is that those were pending 30-45 days ago, but this month’s listings-to-pendings has a 518 home delta. This is what agents are talking about when they mention that they feel a slow-down in the market beyond the typical affects of seasonality.

August, 2018 Real Estate statistics of Loudoun County, VA

August, 2018 Real Estate statistics of Loudoun County, VA

Now that you’ve seen the Fairfax County market, how does Loudoun stack up?

The seasonality side of this infographic shows much of the same as Fairfax, with the exception of the number of new listings. It is expected to see a dip in the new listings as the season changes but that is not the case. There is actually a significant uptick in listings compared to last month. At the same time, pendings and closings have dropped in a similar way as Fairfax County.

When looking at the last year it seems that the not only was the a drop in pendings a few months ago (because that is another way of seeing closings), but that drop has continued this month. At the same time, listings continue to grow. Seeing trends like these could be the first step towards a buyers market much like they are seeing in other areas around the US.

If you have any questions or concerns about the data here, or would like to see more specific information about your neighborhood’s statistics, The CAZA Group is happy to help. Call 703-651-6735 or email concierge@thecazagroup.com for any of your Real Estate needs.